Why Portugal's World Cup Run Should Worry Argentina Fans More Than Trolling
The Numbers Don’t Lie
When I published my World Cup quarterfinal predictions on November 15, several football forums dismissed my Portugal analysis as ‘CR7 bias.’ Now that they’ve comfortably secured their spot, perhaps we should revisit those spreadsheets with fresh eyes.
Key metrics favoring Portugal:
- xG (Expected Goals): 2.1 per match (3rd highest among remaining teams)
- Defensive solidity: Only 0.7 xGA (Expected Goals Against) in knockout stages
- Squad rotation capacity: 8 players with 90+ minute fitness levels
Why Argentina Should Look Inward
The screenshot circulating of distraught Messi fans DMing me post-match tells its own story. But here’s what your emotions might be obscuring:
- Argentina scraped past Australia with 1.02 xG vs their 0.89 xG
- Netherlands have kept clean sheets in 4 of last 5 matches
- Portugal’s bench includes Rafael Leão (AC Milan’s top scorer) while Argentina relies heavily on aging Di María
Historical Context Matters
My predictive model weighs tournament experience heavily. Portugal’s core squad features:
- 6 players from their Euro 2016 triumph
- 9 with Champions League knockout experience this season
Compare this to Argentina’s reliance on World Cup debutants like Enzo Fernández (albeit brilliant).
“But James,” you say, “Messi is transcendental!” Absolutely. But even Leo can’t outrun these numbers forever.
Verdict: Save the Trolls for Later
Portugal reaching semifinals was statistically probable (63% chance in my model). Argentina overcoming Netherlands? Currently at 51%. Maybe focus there first.
DataDrivenFooty
Hot comment (11)
¿Preocupados por Portugal? Mejor miren a su propia selección 😏
Los números no mienten: Portugal llega con mejor xG y defensa que Argentina. Y eso que algunos decían que era ‘sesgo CR7’… ¡Qué risa!
El banquillo dice mucho: Mientras Portugal tiene a Leão fresco, Argentina depende de un Di María que ya corre con walker.
Y lo peor: Holanda lleva 4 clean sheets. ¿En serio quieren seguir troleando en vez de rezar? 🙏
Datos + humor = mi combo ganador. ¿Ustedes qué opinan, culés?
Хто сказав, що цифри брешуть?
Мої дорогі футбольні експерти, ви ж знаєте, що я завжди довіряю даним. І ось вони кажуть: Португалія – справжній фаворит! xG 2.1, міцна оборона – це вам не “Месі на одній нозі”.
А де ваші аргументи?
Аргентина ледве пройшла Австралію з xG 1.02 – це ж смішно! Португальці ж мають Леау на лавці, а у вас – Ді Марія, який вже пам’ятає Євро-2016.
Так що, може, перестанете тролити і подивитеся на цифри? Або хоча б на мої червоні окуляри – вони ніколи не помиляються! 😎⚽
Os números não mentem (mas assustam!)
Quando o James mostrou aquela análise com Portugal tendo 63% de chance nas semifinais, todo mundo riu. Agora quem ri por último ri melhor - ou chora, se for argentino!
O fantasma português
Enquanto os hermanos se preocupam em zoar, Portugal tem:
- Time descansado (até o banco marca gol)
- Defesa que nem a Muralha da China
- E o CR7 com fome de título
Messi é gênio, mas até ele treme com essas estatísticas! E aí, torcedores argentinos: ainda vão trollar ou já começaram a rezar? 🙏😂
Os números não mentem - e doem!
Quando o James falou que Portugal era favorito, riram dele por causa do ‘viés CR7’. Agora quem ri por último ri melhor - com dados na mão!
Porque Argentina deve se preocupar:
- Banco de Portugal tem Leão (top scorer do Milan)
- Argentina depende do velhinho Di María
- xG de Portugal é assustador (2.1 por jogo!)
Mas hey, pelo menos podem zoar os hermanos depois… ou não? 😏 #FicaDica
Daten vs. Emotionen
Als ich vor dem Viertelfinale Portugals Stärken analysierte, hieß es noch: ‘Typisch CR7-Fanboy!’ Jetzt, wo die Zahlen sprechen (2,1 xG pro Spiel!), sollten wir vielleicht mal überlegen, wer hier wirklich biased ist. 😏
Argentinien? Lieber erstmal Holland schlagen!
Messi ist zwar göttlich, aber selbst er kann nicht gegen 0,7 xGA im K.o.-Stadium anstinken. Und während Portugal mit Rafael Leão frischen Wind reinbringt, hängt Argentinien immer noch am alten Di María. Prioritäten, Leute!
Mein Tipp für die WM-Wette:
Bevor ihr euch über Portugal aufregt, checkt lieber meine 51%-Prognose für Argentinien gegen Holland. Spoiler: Nicht so rosig. 🤷♂️ #StatistikSchlägtTrolle
Toán thắng bóng đá?
Các con số của chuyên gia phân tích này khiến tôi muốn… đốt máy tính đi xem bóng đá cho lành! Portugal với chỉ số xG cao ngất ngưởng, trong khi Argentina phải ‘vật lộn’ mới qua được Úc.
Fan Argentina nên lo gì?
- Đội hình dự bị của Portugal chất như Rafael Leão còn Argentina vẫn trông chờ ông già Di María
- Hà Lan sạch lưới 4⁄5 trận gần nhất - chuẩn bị tinh thần xem Messi ‘đội sổ’ nhé!
Nói thật nhé: Cứ troll CR7 đi, rồi khóc như screenshot fan Messi DM cho tác giả đó mà coi!
Ai dám cá với tôi tỷ lệ 51% Argentina thắng Hà Lan không? Comment xuống chiến nào!
Los números no perdonan
Cuando Raúl predijo el pase de Portugal a semifinales, muchos se rieron. Ahora esos mismos están llorando en mis DMs como Messi en 2014 😂
Datos que duelen:
- Portugal tiene mejor xG que tu ex (2.1 por partido)
- Su banquillo está más fresco que una ensalada (8 jugadores al 100%)
A Argentina le falta rotación: Depender de Di María con 34 años es como ir al McAuto… ¡riesgoso!
¿Vosotros confiáis más en Messi o en las matemáticas? ¡Dejad vuestras apuestas abajo! ⚽📊
Portugal Lebih Menakutkan dari Troll Netizen!
Waktu analisisku soal Portugal di forum kemarin dianggap ‘bias CR7’, eh sekarang mereka malah buktiin data tidak bohong! xG 2.1, pertahanan solid - Argentina yang harusnya waspada, bukan sibuk ngetroll!
Messi Vs Kalkulator Enzo Fernández emang jago, tapi 6 pemain Portugal juara Euro 2016 + Rafael Leão di bangku cadangan… Waduh!
Prediksi semifinal? Ayo dukung tim favoritmu di komen! 😆
ตัวเลขมันพูดเองครับพี่น้อง!
ตอนแรกใครๆก็ว่าผมเชียร์ CR7 เกินไป…แต่ดูสถิติสิครับ! โปรตุเกสยิงเฉลี่ย 2.1 แต้มต่อเกม (สูงสุดอันดับ 3) ส่วนอาร์เจนตินาต่อสู้แบบหนังชีวิตกับออสเตรเลียด้วย xG แค่ 1.02 😅
ของแถมจาก Spreadsheet:
- กองหลังโปรตุเกสเทพมาก ค่า xGA แค่ 0.7 ในรอบ knockout
- มีตัวสำรองสมบูรณ์แบบ 8 คน ส่วนอาร์เจนตินายังพึ่ง Di María อายุหลัก 5
แฟนๆเมสซี่ที่กำลังโกรธอยู่…แนะนำให้ไปกังวลกับเนเธอร์แลนด์ก่อนนะครับ เพราะโอกาสเข้ารอบผมคำนวณไว้แค่ 51% เท่านั้น!
(คอมเมนต์ด้านล่าง: คุณเชื่อสถิติหรือเชื่อ ‘เวทย์มนตร์’ ของเมสซี่มากกว่ากัน?)
¡Que no cunda el pánico, argentinos! 🧮⚽
Los números de Portugal dan miedo: 2.1 xG por partido y solo 0.7 xGA en eliminatorias. ¿Y Argentina? Raspando con 1.02 xG contra Australia…
El banquillo marca la diferencia ¿Rafael Leão vs Di María? No hace falta ser un genio de Python para verlo. Aunque Messi es extraterrestre, hasta los aliens tienen límites físicos.
“Pero James, ¡es Messi!” Sí, pero mi modelo le da solo 51% de probabilidades contra Holanda. ¿No será mejor dejar los memes para después? 😉
#DatosQueDuelen #FútbolSinFiltros
पुर्तगाल का डेटा देखकर अर्जेंटीना फैन्स घबरा गए!
जब मैंने क्वार्टरफाइनल की भविष्यवाणी की थी, तो लोगों ने मेरे CR7 के पक्षपात का आरोप लगाया था। अब पुर्तगाल के आसान जीत के बाद, शायद उन्हें अपनी स्प्रेडशीट को फिर से देखना चाहिए!
अर्जेंटीना फैन्स को क्यों चिंता करनी चाहिए:
- पुर्तगाल का xG (Expected Goals) 2.1 प्रति मैच है (बचे हुए टीमों में तीसरा सबसे ज्यादा)
- डिफेंसिव सॉलिडिटी: नॉकआउट स्टेज में सिर्फ 0.7 xGA
- बेंच स्ट्रेंथ: राफेल लेओ (AC Milan के टॉप स्कोरर) जैसे खिलाड़ी बैठे हैं!
इसलिए, अर्जेंटीना फैन्स, ट्रोलिंग से पहले अपने टीम के नंबर्स पर ध्यान दो! 😉
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