The Paradox of Paqueta: How a World-Class Midfielder Was Left Behind by the English Game

## The Fall of a Star

Lucas Paqueta arrived at West Ham in 2021 with the kind of pedigree few midfielders possess: technically gifted, tactically intelligent, and blessed with vision that bordered on prophetic. He had already proven himself across leagues—from Brazil to Ligue 1—and was widely regarded as one of the few genuine world-class central midfielders outside Europe’s top five leagues.

But here’s what the data shows: his xG (expected goals) contributions dropped by over 40% within two seasons. His pass accuracy fell below average for Premier League deep-lying playmakers. And yet—he wasn’t benched for poor form. He was benched because he didn’t fit.

## The Tactical Misfire

West Ham deployed him as an inverted winger early on—a role alien to his natural game. Then they tried him as a defensive anchor in a three-man midfield system that demanded more discipline than he had been trained for.

Data doesn’t lie: when Paqueta played in his preferred role—central playmaker behind the striker—he averaged 2.3 key passes per game and created 18 chances across three months in 2022–23. When moved wide or anchored back? That number halved.

This wasn’t just poor setup—it was systemic misalignment between player profile and team structure.

## Compensation That Should Have Been a Red Flag

Then came the final insult: after suffering consistent positional frustration and physical strain from being forced into roles beyond his comfort zone, West Ham offered only £1 million in compensation when selling him to Aston Villa.

Let that sink in: £1 million for a player many scouts rated higher than Gareth Bale at his peak?

In financial terms alone, this makes no sense. But statistically speaking? It reflects deeper problems—how clubs value output over potential, results over development.

## The Ripple Effect on Brazilian Football

And now look at Brazil’s national setup. With Paqueta sidelined and underutilized, head coach Dorival Junior has been forced to shift Éder Militão into midfield—or worse—play Róger Guedes as an emergency pivot.

That’s right: Brazil had to reconfigure its entire midfield identity because England failed to nurture one of its most promising talents.

We’re not just talking about lost potential—we’re talking about strategic national consequences rooted in club-level inefficiency.

## What This Tells Us About Modern Football Economics

There’s an old saying among analysts: “You don’t lose players—you lose markets.” In this case, we lost both: The market didn’t believe Paqueta could adapt; so he didn’t get investment or trust. The club didn’t invest time or data into adapting their system around him; so he declined. The result? A €60M+ asset reduced to £1M value—an economic absurdity we should all be scrutinizing more closely.

Football isn’t destiny—it’s decision-making under pressure with measurable outcomes,

And when you ignore your data-driven insights? You end up paying for it—not in cash—but through reputation, performance decay, and geopolitical fallout from missing big-tournament moments due to avoidable mistakes like this one.